A day before the U.S. embassy in Moscow put out a rare public alert this month about a possible extremist attack at a Russian concert venue, the local C.I.A. station delivered a private warning to Russian officials that included at least one additional detail: The plot in question involved an offshoot of the Islamic State known as ISIS-K.
本月，美国驻莫斯科大使馆罕见地公开发布俄罗斯音乐会现场可能遭到极端分子袭击警报。在那之前一天，驻当地的中情局私下还向俄罗斯官员发出了警告，其中至少包括一个额外的细节：该阴谋涉及伊斯兰国的呼罗珊分支(ISIS-K)。
American intelligence had been tracking the group closely and believed the threat credible. Within days, however, President Vladimir V. Putin was disparaging the warnings, calling them “outright blackmail” and attempts to “intimidate and destabilize our society.”
美国情报部门一直在密切跟踪该组织，并认为这一威胁是可信的。然而，没过几天，普京总统就驳斥了这些警告，称之为“赤裸裸的讹诈”，企图“恐吓和破坏我们社会的稳定”。
Three days after he spoke, gunmen stormed Crocus City Hall outside Moscow last Friday night and killed at least 143 people in the deadliest attack in Russia in nearly two decades. ISIS quickly claimed responsibility for the massacre with statements, a photo and a propaganda video.
在他发表这番讲话三天后，枪手于上周五晚袭击了莫斯科郊外的“番红花城”音乐厅，造成至少143人死亡，这是俄罗斯近20年来死亡人数最多的恐怖袭击事件。伊斯兰国很快通过数份声明、一张照片和一段宣传视频宣布对此次屠杀负责。
What made the security lapse seemingly even more notable was that in the days before the massacre Russia’s own security establishment had also acknowledged the domestic threat posed by the Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan, called Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISIS-K.
在大屠杀发生前的几天里，俄罗斯自己的安全机构也承认，伊斯兰国在阿富汗的分支——伊斯兰国呼罗珊组织在俄境内构成了威胁，这让这一安全漏洞显得更加引人注目。
Internal Russian intelligence reporting that most likely circulated at the highest levels of the government warned of the increased likelihood of an attack in Russia by ethnic Tajiks radicalized by ISIS-K, according to information obtained by the Dossier Center, a London research organization, and reviewed by The New York Times.
据伦敦研究机构Dossier Center获得的信息，极可能在政府高层流传的俄罗斯内部情报报告警告说，受到伊斯兰国呼罗珊组影响，成为激进分子的塔吉克族人在俄罗斯发动袭击的可能性增大了。《纽约时报》查阅了相关信息。
Russia has identified the four men suspected of carrying out the attack as being from Tajikistan.
俄罗斯已经确认涉嫌实施袭击的四名男子来自塔吉克斯坦。
Now, Mr. Putin and his lieutenants are pointing fingers at Ukraine, trying to deflect attention from a question that would be front and center in any nation with an independent media and open debate in its politics: How did Russia’s vast intelligence and law enforcement apparatus, despite significant warnings, fail to head off one of the biggest terrorist attacks in the country in Mr. Putin’s nearly quarter century in power?
现在，普京总统及其助手正在指责乌克兰，称其应对袭击负责，试图转移人们对一个问题的关注，而这个问题在任何一个拥有独立媒体和公开政治辩论的国家都会成为焦点：俄罗斯庞大的情报和执法机构为何在收到大量警告的情况下，仍未能阻止普京执政近四分之一世纪以来该国最大的恐怖袭击之一？
The full picture is still unclear, and U.S. and European officials, as well as security and counterterrorism experts, emphasize that even in the best of circumstances, with highly specific information and well-oiled security services, disrupting covert international terror plots is difficult.
事情的全貌目前尚不得而知，美国和欧洲官员以及安全和反恐专家强调，即使在最理想的情况下，拥有极为具体的信息和运转良好的安全机构，要挫败国际恐怖主义密谋计划也是很困难的。
But they say the failure most likely resulted from a combination of factors, paramount among them the deep levels of distrust, both within the Russian security establishment and in its relations with other global intelligence agencies.
但他们表示，这次失败很可能是多个因素共同作用的结果，其中最重要的是，俄罗斯安全机构内部及其与其他全球情报机构之间存在严重的不信任。
They also point to the way Mr. Putin has hijacked his domestic security apparatus for an ever-widening political crackdown at home — as well as his focus on crusading against Ukraine and the West — as distractions that probably did not help.
他们还指出，普京利用国内安全机构不断扩大政治打压，以及他对乌克兰和西方的强硬立场，可能都不无关系。
This account of the Russian failure to prevent the concert attack is based on interviews with U.S. and European security officials, security experts and analysts specializing in international intelligence capabilities. Many spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence details.
这篇关于俄罗斯未能阻止音乐会袭击事件的报道是基于对美国和欧洲安全官员、安全专家和国际情报能力专家的采访撰写的。由于讨论敏感的情报细节，多人要求匿名。
“The problem is to actually be able to prevent terrorist attacks, you need to have a really good and efficient system of intelligence sharing and intelligence gathering,” said Andrei Soldatov, an expert on Russian intelligence, who underscored that trust is needed inside the home agency and with agencies of other countries, as is good coordination. He said, “That’s where you have problems.”
俄罗斯情报方面的专家安德烈·索尔达托夫说：“问题是，要想能够阻止恐怖袭击，你需要有一个真正良好、高效的情报共享和情报收集系统。”他强调，俄罗斯情报机构内部需要信任，与其他国家的情报机构之间也需要信任，还有良好的协调。他表示：“这些都是问题所在。”
An Expanding Definition of Extremist
极端主义的定义不断扩大
Mr. Putin’s definition of what constitutes an extremist began to expand even before his invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
早在2022年初普京入侵乌克兰之前，他对于极端主义的定义就开始扩大。
The agency primarily responsible for combating terrorism in Russia is called the Second Service, a branch of the Federal Security Service, or the F.S.B. It once focused on Islamist extremists, bands of assassins and homegrown neo-Nazi groups.
在俄罗斯，主要负责打击恐怖主义的机构是联邦安全局下属的第二局。该机构曾专注于打击伊斯兰极端分子、刺客团伙和本土的新纳粹团体。
But as Mr. Putin has advanced his political crackdown at home, its list of targets ballooned to include opposition figures like Aleksei A. Navalny, who died last month in a Russian prison, and his supporters, as well as L.G.B.T.Q. rights activists, Jehovah’s Witnesses, peace activists and other Kremlin critics.
但随着普京在国内加紧政治打压，打击对象的名单不断扩大，包括像上个月在俄狱中去世的阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼等反对派人士及其支持者，以及LGBTQ权益活动人士、“耶和华见证人”、和平活动人士以及其他克里姆林宫批评者。
The number of Islamist-related organizations on the register of extremist organizations listed by Russian Federal Service for Financial Monitoring has declined since 2013. At the same time, hundreds of organizations have been added related to Jehovah’s Witnesses, which has its worldwide headquarters in the United States and is viewed with suspicion by the F.S.B. Still, U.S. and European officials say the Russian officials tracking Islamist extremists have their own unit within the Second Service that has remained robustly staffed and funded, despite the strains on the security services from the intensifying domestic political crackdown and the war against Ukraine.
自2013年以来，俄罗斯联邦金融监督局列出的极端主义组织登记册上的伊斯兰相关组织数量有所下降。与此同时，还增加了数以百计与“耶和华见证人”有关的组织，这个总部在美国的组织受到了联邦安全局的怀疑。不过，美国和欧洲的官员表示，追踪伊斯兰极端分子的俄罗斯官员在第二局有自己的部门，该部门仍然配备了雄厚的人员和资金资源，尽管国内政治镇压加剧和对乌克兰的战争给安全部门带来了压力。
The failure to prevent the attack was probably the result of a combination of other factors, including fatigue after being “especially alert” during the period before Russia’s recent presidential election, said a European security official, who tracks the activities of the Russian intelligence services.
一名追踪俄罗斯情报机构活动的欧洲安全官员表示，未能阻止此次袭击可能是其他因素共同作用的结果，其中包括在俄罗斯最近的总统选举前一段时间“特别警觉”后的疲惫。
There is also evidence that Russian authorities did respond to the warnings this month, at least initially.
也有证据表明，俄罗斯当局本月确实对警告做出了回应，至少在最初是这样。
Increased Security
加强安全
On March 7, the day after the C.I.A. station issued the private warning to the Russians, the F.S.B. announced that it had killed two Kazakhs southwest of Moscow, while disrupting an ISIS-K plot to target a synagogue in the capital. U.S. officials thought the raid was possibly a sign that the Russian authorities were springing into action.
3月7日，就在中情局私下警告俄罗斯的第二天，联邦安全局宣布在莫斯科西南部击毙两名哈萨克斯坦人，并挫败了伊斯兰国呼罗珊组织袭击首都一座犹太教堂的阴谋。美国官员认为，这次突查可能表明，俄罗斯当局迅速采取了行动。
Iosif Prigozhin, a well-known Russian music producer, recalled that he and his wife, the Russian pop star Valeriya, who performed at Crocus City Hall this month, noticed how security had increased at the venue in early March; security guards checked people’s bags and cosmetics cases and took other measures he hadn’t seen there before, he said.
俄罗斯知名音乐制作人约西夫·普里戈津回忆，他和妻子、本月曾在番红花城音乐厅演出的俄罗斯流行歌手瓦列里娅注意到，3月初，场馆的安保措施有所加强；他说，保安人员检查了人们的包和化妆品箱，还采取了他以前从未见过的其他措施。
“I even called the general director and said, ‘Listen, what’s going on? Are you expecting high-ranking guests?'” Mr. Prigozhin said in an interview. “He said, ‘Iosif, I’ll tell you later.’ He didn’t say anything over the phone. He said it’s necessary — and that’s it.”
“我甚至打电话给总经理说，‘听着，这是怎么回事？你要接待高级客人吗？’”普里戈津在接受采访时说。“经理说，‘约西夫，我以后再告诉你。’他在电话里什么也没说。他说这是必要的——就是这样。”
Around the same time, the venue’s staff was warned about the possibility of a terrorist attack and instructed on what to do in such an event, said Islam Khalilov, a 15-year-old student who was working in the coat check on the night of the attack, in an interview posted on YouTube.
15岁的学生伊斯兰·哈利洛夫袭击当晚在衣帽间打工，他在YouTube上发布的一段采访中说，大约在同一时段，该场所的工作人员接到了可能发生恐怖袭击的警告，并被告知在这种情况下该怎么做。
One of Mr. Putin’s favorite singers, Grigory Leps, was performing there on March 8. Shaman, a singer whose pro-Kremlin jingoism has catapulted him to popularity amid wartime fervor, was scheduled to take the stage a day later.
普京最喜欢的歌手之一格里戈里·莱普斯于3月8日在那里演出。因亲克里姆林宫的沙文主义而在战争狂热中走红的歌手萨满原定于一天后登台演出。
But the heightened security didn’t ferret out one of the attackers, Shamsidin Fariduni. Employees at the music hall, speaking to Russian media, recalled seeing Mr. Fariduni at the concert venue on March 7. A photo of him in a light brown coat at the venue, verified by The Times, has circulated in the Russian press.
但加强安全措施并没有揪出袭击者之一沙姆西丁·法里杜尼。音乐厅的工作人员在接受俄罗斯媒体采访时，回忆起3月7日在音乐厅见到法里杜尼的情景。经时报核实，一张他穿着浅棕色外套出现在音乐厅的照片在俄罗斯媒体上流传。
Aleksandr V. Bortnikov, the director of the F.S.B., emphasized Tuesday in public comments that the information the United States provided was “of a general nature.”
周二，俄罗斯联邦安全局局长亚历山大·博尔特尼科夫在公开评论中强调，美国提供的信息是“一般性的”。
“We reacted to this information, of course, and took appropriate measures,” he said, noting that the actions the F.S.B. took to follow up on the tip didn’t confirm it.
“当然，我们对这一信息做出了反应，并采取了适当的措施，”他说。他指出，俄罗斯联邦安全局针对这一消息采取的后续行动并没有证实该线索。
The adversarial relationship between Washington and Moscow prevented U.S. officials from sharing any information about the plot beyond what was necessary, out of fear Russian authorities might learn their intelligence sources or methods.
由于华盛顿和莫斯科之间的敌对关系，美国官员除了必要信息外，没有分享其它有关这一阴谋的信息，因为担心俄罗斯当局可能会知道他们获取情报的来源或方法。
In its March 7 public warning, the U.S. embassy said the risk of a concert venue attack in Moscow was acute for the next 48 hours. U.S. officials say it’s possible Russian authorities pushed hard around the 48-hour warning period but later grew more relaxed and distrustful when an attack didn’t occur.
美国大使馆在3月7日的公开警告中说，在未来48小时内，莫斯科音乐会场地遭受袭击的风险非常大。美国官员表示，俄罗斯当局有可能在48小时的警告期间采取了强硬措施，但后来在没有发生袭击的情况下开始松懈，越来越怀疑情报的可靠性。
But by then, the skepticism about the plot had grown within the Russian government, and Mr. Putin felt comfortable deriding the public warnings in a speech to top officers at the F.S.B., using the occasion to attack the West again.
但到那时，对该阴谋的怀疑在俄罗斯政府内部已经增长，普京在对俄联邦安全局高层发表讲话时，对公开警告嗤之以鼻，并借此机会再次攻击西方。
“Because the F.S.B. — and Putin — sees the world through the prism that the United States is out to get Russia, any information that is not consistent with that frame is easily dismissed,” said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, who previously led analyses of Russia by the U.S. intelligence community. “因为联邦安全局——以及普京——是通过美国要对付俄罗斯的视角来看待世界的，所以任何不符合这个框架的信息都很容易被忽视，”新美国安全中心高级研究员安德里亚·肯德尔-泰勒说。她之前领导了美国情报界对俄罗斯的分析。
She said, “That dynamic may have resulted in an intelligence failure with devastating consequences.”
“这种态势可能导致了情报失误，并带来了毁灭性的后果，”她说。
In the days since the attack, Moscow has returned the favor to Washington for offering the tip by claiming its warning should be treated as evidence of possible American complicity.
袭击发生后的几天里，莫斯科对华盛顿提供信息的回报是，声称这一警告应被视为美国可能参与其中的证据。
Mr. Bortnikov, the F.S.B. director, said on Tuesday that Islamist extremists alone couldn’t possibly have carried out the attack. He blamed, among others, the United States.
俄罗斯联邦安全局局长博尔特尼科夫周二表示，袭击不可能由伊斯兰极端分子单独实施。他将责任归咎于美国。
Oleg Matsnev、Safak Timur和Aric Toler对本文有报道贡献。
Paul Sonne是一名国际新闻记者，报道俄罗斯新闻和普京的国内和国际政策产生的一系列影响，主要关注乌克兰战争。
Eric Schmitt是时报国家安全记者，着重报道美国军事新闻和海外反恐新闻，他报道这一领域已超过30年。
Michael Schwirtz是时报国际版面调查记者。他自2006年加入时报，此前自莫斯科报道前苏联成员国新闻，他是因报道俄罗斯情报行动而获得2020年普利策奖的团队的首席记者。点击查看更多关于他的信息。
翻译：纽约时报中文网
