Narendra Modi has big money behind him as he appears set to win a third term as India’s prime minister. His party has collected more political cash than the others combined, and the country’s richest business leaders support him.
纳伦德拉·莫迪有大笔资金支持，似乎会赢得第三个印度总理任期。他的政党筹集的政治资金比其他政党的总和还要多，该国最富有的商界领袖也支持他。

The campaign is fueled partly by a winning story Mr. Modi tells about India’s economy, some of which can be traced to changes made during his decade in office. He has also benefited from geopolitical currents that have made India more attractive to global financiers. Here are five factors that are essential to understanding India’s economy. Elections will start on April 19 and conclude June 4.
莫迪讲述了一个印度经济的成功故事，其中一些可以追溯到他执政十年期间所做的变革，这在一定程度上推动了他的竞选活动。他还受益于令印度对全球金融人士更具吸引力的地缘政治潮流。以下是了解印度经济的五个重要因素。选举将于4月19日开始，6月4日结束。

India is big and getting bigger.
印度很大，而且越来越大。

India, the world’s largest population, has been poor for centuries on a per person basis. But its economy has developed an undeniable momentum in the past three decades and is now worth $3.7 trillion. Size like that has its advantages: Even one percentage point of growth is monumental.
作为世界上人口最多的国家，印度几个世纪以来按人均计算一直处于贫困状态。但在过去30年里，印度的经济发展势头不可否认，目前已达到3.7万亿美元。这样的规模有其优势：即使一个百分点的增长也是巨大的。

“Fastest-growing major economy” has become India’s signature in the past few years. In 2022 India became the fifth-largest economy — stepping over Britain. Even if it continues to grow at a relatively modest pace, it should overtake Germany and Japan to become the third-largest economy around 2030, behind only China and the United States.
在过去几年里，“增长最快的主要经济体”已经成为印度的标志。2022年，印度超越英国成为世界第五大经济体。即使继续以相对温和的速度增长，印度也应该在2030年左右超过德国和日本，成为仅次于中国和美国的第三大经济体。

The “India growth story,” as local businesspeople call it, is attracting a surge of excitement from investors, especially overseas. Under Mr. Modi, Indians are becoming more hopeful about their country’s economic future. As the economy gets bigger, even smaller rates of growth pile on huge sums of wealth.
当地商人所说的“印度增长故事”正吸引着投资者，尤其是海外投资者。在莫迪的领导下，印度人对本国经济的未来越来越充满希望。随着经济规模的扩大，即使是较低的增长率也会积累巨额财富。

Yet many facts of the Indian economy remain stubbornly in place. A large proportion of the work force toils on farms, for instance, and a relatively small part of it is employed in factories. Without better jobs, most Indians will be left waiting to taste this success.
然而，印度经济中的许多事实仍然顽固地存在着。例如，很大一部分劳动力在农场劳动，在工厂工作的劳动力相对较少。没有更好的工作，大多数印度人无法立刻尝到成功的滋味。

There’s nothing like being in the right place at the right time.
在正确的时间出现在正确的地点是最好的事。

Over the past 10 years, the rest of the world has given Mr. Modi opportunities to turn adversity into India’s advantage. He took office as oil prices were cut in half, a huge boost to the country because it relies heavily on imported crude.
过去10年里，世界其他地区给了莫迪机会，让他得以把逆境转化为印度的优势。他上任之时，油价下跌了一半，这对严重依赖进口原油的印度来说是一个巨大的助推。

The next few years were bumpier. Shocks caused by Mr. Modi’s boldest moves — an abrupt ban on bank notes and a big tax overhaul — were slow to be absorbed. By 2019 growth was slowing to less than 5 percent. Mr. Modi won re-election that year on the strength of a nationalistic campaign after brief border clashes with Pakistan.
接下来的几年比较动荡。莫迪最大胆的举措——突然实施的“废钞令”和大规模的税收改革——引发了冲击，迟迟没有被消化。到2019年，增长放缓至不到5%。当年，在与巴基斯坦发生短暂的边境冲突后，莫迪凭借民族主义，在竞选中赢得了连任。

When the Covid-19 pandemic came, it was cruel to India. During the first lockdowns, the economy shrank 23.9 percent. A 2021 wave pulled India’s health-care system into crisis.
新冠疫情的来袭对印度来说是残酷的。在第一次封锁期间，印度经济萎缩了23.9%。2021年的疫情潮使印度的医疗体系陷入危机。

India’s economic recovery then coincided with a supercharged enthusiasm by Western countries to tap India as an economic and strategic partner. The pandemic had exposed the world’s deep dependence on China as a supplier and manufacturer. And China’s heightened tensions with the United States, its own border clashes with India, and now its uncertain economic prospects inspired businesses and investors to look to India as a solution.
印度的经济复苏恰逢西方国家将印度作为经济和战略伙伴的热情高涨。疫情暴露了世界对中国作为供应国和制造国的严重依赖。中国与美国的紧张关系加剧，中国与印度的边境冲突，以及中国现在不确定的经济前景，促使企业和投资者将印度视为解决方案。

Build, baby, build: India shows off shiny new projects.
建设，建设：印度炫耀闪亮的新项目。

The most visible improvements to India’s economy are in infrastructure. Mr. Modi’s gift for implementation has helped build up capacity exactly where India has missed it most.
印度经济最明显的改善是在基础设施方面。莫迪在执行方面的天赋帮助印度在最欠缺的地方积累了能力。

The building boom started with transportation: the railways, ports, bridges, roads, airports. India is remaking itself rapidly. Some of the developments are truly eye-catching and are laying the tracks for faster growth. The hope is that local businesses will start investing more where the government has lent its muscle.
建筑热潮始于交通运输：铁路、港口、桥梁、公路、机场。印度正在迅速改造自己。其中一些发展确实引人注目，为更快的增长奠定了基础。希望当地企业将开始在政府提供支持的领域加大投资。

Investment in India’s education and public health has been less meaningful. Instead, the government under Mr. Modi has aimed to make concrete improvements for ordinary Indians: bringing electricity to most remote villages, and drinking water and toilets to homes that lacked them.
对印度教育和公共卫生的投资相对较少。相反，莫迪领导下的政府的目标是为普通印度人做出具体的改善：为大多数偏远村庄通电，为缺乏饮用水和厕所的家庭提供这些资源。

Beneath the gleam, a digital powerhouse is built.
在这样的光芒之下，一个数码强国正在崛起。

Less tangible but perhaps more significant has been India’s rapid adoption of what the government calls “digital public infrastructure.” This is a web of software that starts with Aadhaar, a biometric identification system established under Mr. Modi’s predecessor, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. From unique digital identities, it has tied together access to bank accounts, welfare benefits and tax requirements.
印度迅速采用了政府所说的“数字公共基础设施”，这相对没那么显眼，但或许更重要。这是一个从Aadhaar开始的软件网络，Aadhaar是莫迪的前任曼莫汉·辛格任内打造的一个生物识别系统。通过独特的数字身份，将银行账户、福利和税收要求捆绑在一起。

This new organization of India’s data, combined with a dense and cost-effective mobile network, has brought efficiencies that grease the gears of commerce. India is proudly exporting the basic framework of its digital architecture to other countries.
这种印度数据新的组织方式与密集且具有成本效益的移动网络结合，带来了效率，推动了商业发展。印度正自豪地向其他国家输出其数字架构的基本框架。

Inequality deepens as old problems go unsolved.
老问题得不到解决，不平等还在加剧。

Some of the Indian economy’s persistent ailments have been left to fester. Mr. Modi has tried and failed to fix things that plagued previous governments, like industrial policy, the broken agricultural markets and rules for land acquisition. What has become even worse under his government is the country’s vast inequality.
印度经济的一些顽疾还在恶化。莫迪曾试图解决困扰前几届政府的问题，比如产业政策、破碎的农业市场和土地征用规则，但都以失败告终。在他的政府领导下，该国严重的不平等现象变得更加严重。

A study published last month by the World Inequality Database in Paris found that while the number of billionaires in India nearly tripled in the past 10 years, the incomes of most Indians were stagnant. The median income is still only $1,265 a year, and 90 percent of the country makes less than $3,900. When so many are left with so little, it is hard to see how domestic consumption will spur faster growth.
位于巴黎的世界不平等数据库上月发布的一项研究发现，尽管印度亿万富翁的数量在过去10年里增长了近两倍，但大多数印度人的收入却停滞不前。年收入中位数仍然只有1265美元，全国90%的人收入不到3900美元。这么多的人只有这么少的钱，很难想象国内消费会刺激经济更快增长。

The Indian government is quick to reject most such reports; the underlying data is too thin, its economists say. But that’s partly because of the government’s own doing. For all of India’s digital innovation, deciphering what is going on in the country’s economic life has become harder. Under Mr. Modi’s government, fewer official statistics are published and some important data sets, such as those tracking household consumption, have been delayed and redesigned.
印度政府很快驳斥了大多数此类报告。印度经济学家表示，基础数据过于单薄。但这在一定程度上是政府自己造成的。尽管印度的数字创新层出不穷，解读该国经济生活中发生的一切却变得越来越困难。在莫迪政府领导下，官方统计数据的发布减少了，一些重要的数据集，比如追踪家庭消费的数据，也被推迟发布和重新设计。

What’s more, institutions like think tanks and universities face legal and financial pressure to fall in line behind the government’s messaging.
更重要的是，像智库和大学这样的机构面临着法律和财政压力，必须与政府释放的讯息保持一致。

Alex Travelli是《纽约时报》驻新德里的记者，报道印度和南亚其他地区的商业和经济事务。他此前曾担任《经济学人》的编辑和记者。

翻译：晋其角