After his shockingly poor performance in last week’s debate, President Biden is facing mounting pressure to drop out of the 2024 election. Influential voices in his own party have called for him to step aside. Polls indicate that many voters hope he will. Yet so far, he is staying the course.
拜登总统在上周的辩论中表现之糟令人震惊，他面临越来越大的压力，要求他退出2024年大选。党内有影响力的声音要求他让位。民意调查显示，许多选民也希望他会这样做。然而到目前为止，他仍在坚持。
There’s a formal name for this trap: escalation of commitment to a losing course of action. In the face of impending failure, extensive evidence shows, instead of rethinking our plans, we often double down on our decisions. It feels better to be a fighter than a quitter.
这样的陷阱有一个正式的名字：对正在失败的行为做出承诺升级。大量的证据表明，面对即将到来的失败，我们往往不是重新考虑计划，而是为这个计划加倍努力。做斗士比做放弃者感觉更好。
One of the tragedies of the human condition is that we use our big brains not to make rational decisions but rather to rationalize the decisions we’ve already made. We stick around too long in dead-end jobs. We stay in unhappy marriages even after friends have counseled us to leave. We stand by candidates even after they violate our principles.
人类的悲剧之一在于，我们的大脑不是用来做出理性的决定，而是用来把已经做出的决定合理化。我们在没有前途的职位上苦苦坚持。即使朋友劝告，我们也会维持不幸福的婚姻。即使候选人违反了我们的原则，我们也会支持他们。
Some of the worst leadership decisions of our time can be traced to escalation of commitment. Many people lost their lives because American presidents pursued a futile war in Vietnam and continued searching for weapons of mass destruction that weren’t in Iraq. As George Ball warned in a 1965 letter to President Lyndon Johnson: “Once we suffer large casualties, we will have started a well-nigh irreversible process. Our involvement will be so great that we cannot — without national humiliation — stop short of achieving our complete objectives. Of the two possibilities I think humiliation will be more likely.”
我们这个时代一些最糟糕的领导决策都可以追溯到承诺升级。美国总统在越南发动徒劳的战争，在伊拉克寻找根本不存在的大规模杀伤性武器，许多人因此丧生。正如乔治·鲍尔在1965年致林登·约翰逊总统的一封信中所警告的那样：“一旦我们遭受重大伤亡，我们将开始一个几乎不可逆转的过程。我们的卷入程度将如此之深，以至于无法在没有达成全部目标的情况下就停下来，否则令国家蒙受耻辱。在这两种可能性中，我认为国家蒙耻的可能性更大。”
It happens in business, too: Blockbuster went bust because instead of buying Netflix, leaders escalated their commitment to renting physical videos. Kodak made the same mistake by doubling down on selling film instead of pivoting to digital cameras.
这种情况也发生在商业领域：百视达之所以破产，是因为公司领导人没有购买Netflix，而是将租用实体视频的承诺升级。柯达也犯了同样的错误，它没有转向数码相机，而是加倍努力销售胶片。
Escalation of commitment helps to explain why leaders are often so reluctant to loosen their grip on power. Losing a high-status position can make them feel they’re losing their place in the world. It leaves them with bruised egos and wounded pride.
承诺升级有助于解释为什么领导人往往不愿放松对权力的控制。失去高位会让他们觉得自己正在失去在这个世界上的地位。这让他们的自我受到打击，自尊心受到伤害。
Of course, we can’t know for sure which decisions will turn out to be good. But decades of research led by the organizational psychologist Barry Staw have identified a few conditions that make people especially likely to persist on ill-fated paths. Escalation is likely when people are directly responsible for and publicly attached to a decision, when it has been a long journey and the end is in sight, and when they have reasons to be confident that they can succeed.
当然，我们无法确定哪些决定最终会被证明是正确的。但是，由组织心理学家巴里·斯托领导的数十年研究发现，在一些条件下，人们特别容易在命运多舛的道路上坚持下去。当人们对某项决策负有直接责任并公开支持这个决定时；当这个决定经历了一个漫长的过程，结果已经近在眼前时；当他们有理由相信自己能成功时，承诺升级就有可能发生。
It’s striking that Mr. Biden’s current situation checks all those boxes. He announced his re-election bid to the world in April 2023. He has poured 14 months of energy into his campaign and has only four more to go. And he’s beaten the odds before: Many voters told pollsters he was too old before the 2020 election, and in hindsight it’s unlikely that any other Democratic candidate would have won.
令人惊讶的是，拜登目前的处境符合所有这些条件。他于2023年4月向全世界宣布竞选连任。他为竞选投入了14个月的精力，现在只剩四个月了。他以前也曾逆转过不利局面：许多选民在2020年大选前告诉民调机构，他太老了，事后看来，其他任何民主党候选人都不太可能获胜。
So what should the president be doing to navigate this enormously consequential decision? So far, we know that he gathered his family and top aides. (According to reports, they all encouraged him to stay in the race.) That’s a natural enough impulse, but it doesn’t necessarily help, since the people closest to a leader are precisely the ones who are most susceptible to confirmation bias. They’re too personally invested in his success and too likely to dismiss warning signs.
那么，总统在做出这个重大的决定后该怎么做呢？到目前为止，我们知道他召集了他的家人和高级助手。（据报道，他们都鼓励他继续竞选。）这是一种很自然的冲动，但它不一定有帮助，因为最接近领导者的人恰恰是最容易受到认知偏见影响的人。他们对他的成功投入了太多的个人感情，也太容易忽视一些警示信号。
What Mr. Biden needs is not a support network but a challenge network — people who have the will to put the country’s interests ahead of his and the skill to coldly assess his chances. That’s a task for people who are not affiliated with the campaign in any way; people whose judgment has proved to be impeccable and, most of all, impartial; and people who are not worried about the possible cost to their careers. (Ideal candidates for this role might be professional forecaster, since forecasters — unlike pollsters, who tell us what voters think today — excel at anticipating how views are likely to change.)
拜登需要的不是一个支持网络，而是一个挑战他的网络——那些有意愿把国家利益置于他的利益之上，并有能力冷静评估他获胜机会的人。这项任务需要这样的人：他们与竞选活动没有任何关联；他们的判断力无可挑剔，而且最重要的是，他们不偏不倚；他们不担心自己的职业生涯可能因此付出代价。（这个位置的理想人选可能是专业的预测员，因为预测员和民意调查员不同，民调人员告诉我们选民今天的想法，而预测人员擅长预测选民的观点可能会如何变化。）
According to news reports, insiders worry that pressuring Mr. Biden to back out will backfire. That’s a valid concern. Pressure can make people defensive. A more promising approach might start with praising his flexibility, which research shows can make people more willing to rethink bad decisions. Second, ask what he sees as the pros and cons of staying in the race. The best way to open a stubborn mind isn’t to argue; it’s to listen. When people feel heard, they become less defensive and more reflective. Third, ask him what would shift his thinking.
据新闻报道，内部人士担心，迫使拜登退出会产生适得其反的效果。这是个担忧不无道理。压力会使人产生戒心。更有希望的方法可能是先赞扬他的变通能力，研究表明，这种变通能力可以让人更愿意重新考虑自己错误的决定。其次，询问他认为继续竞选有何利弊。打破顽固思想的最好方法不是争论，而是倾听。当人们感到自己被倾听时，他们会变得不那么戒备，会更多地去进行反思。第三，问他什么能让他改变自己的想法。
“President Biden, I admire your ability to build bridges across the aisle. That shows a willingness to have tough conversations, and you certainly have a tough choice in front of you. What advice would you give to others facing this dilemma? You obviously have a long list of reasons to stay in the race. What would be your top three reasons to walk away? What information would convince you that it would be best not to run?”
“拜登总统，我钦佩你在两党之间架起桥梁的能力。这表明你愿意进行艰难的对话，而摆在你面前的无疑是一个艰难的选择。如果是其他人面临这种困境，你会给出什么样的建议？很明显，你有很多继续竞选的理由。你能不能列出你退出的三大理由？哪些信息会让你相信最好不要继续参选？”
When I’ve had discussions like this with leaders in government and business, my biggest struggle has been getting them to acknowledge that failure is a real possibility. They’ve asked me: What if I let go and wish I hadn’t? Along with the regret of dropping out, we also need to weigh the regret of staying in.
当我与政府和商界领袖进行类似讨论时，最大的困难是让他们承认失败的可能性是真实存在的。他们总是问我：如果我放弃了，然后又希望自己当初没有放弃呢？然而，除了退出的遗憾，我们还需要权衡留下的遗憾。
For Mr. Biden, that might mean asking him to imagine that it’s January 2025 and he lost the election in a landslide: President Trump is announcing mass deportations, expanding executive power and working to repeal the 22nd Amendment so he can serve a third term.
对拜登来说，这可能意味着让他想象一下，现在是2025年1月，他以压倒性的结果输掉了选举：特朗普总统宣布大规模驱逐移民，扩大行政权力，并致力于废除第22修正案，这样他就可以获得第三个任期。
This exercise could help Mr. Biden see for himself how losing could rewrite his legacy. He would go down in history as a man who couldn’t see his own decline until it was too late.
这种做法可以帮助拜登看到，失败会如何改写他的政治遗产。历史将把他记载为一个太晚才看到自己衰落的人。
I hope some dedicated group — people who deserve Mr. Biden’s trust but aren’t members of his team or his family — can help him think these questions through. And I hope he has the humility and integrity to take them seriously, no matter how uncomfortable it might be. In a rally last week, he told the crowd, “I know how to tell the truth!” The more vital question is whether he knows how to hear the truth.
我希望一些值得拜登信任的忠诚人士——但不是他的团队成员或家人——能够帮助他思考这些问题。我希望他能谦虚、正直地认真对待这些问题，不管这会让人多么不舒服。在上周的一次集会上，他告诉人群，“我知道该怎么说真话！”更重要的问题是，他是否知道该怎么听到真话。
Refusing to quit is not always a heroic act of resilience. It’s often stubborn rigidity. President Biden, service is not only about stepping up to lead. It’s also about having the courage to step aside.
拒绝放弃并不总是一种勇敢的行为。它往往是顽固的僵化。拜登总统，为国家服务不仅仅是要站出来领导。它还意味着要有让位的勇气。
(本新闻网址：https://www.geilien.cn/news/2024/nyhbiden.html)
Adam Grant是时报观点版面撰稿人，也是宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院的组织心理学家。 他著有《Think Again》一书，也是TED播客《Re:Thinking》的主持人。
翻译：晋其角
