In political banners, campaign slogans and everyday conversations, South Koreans used two words to convey the high stakes of this week’s parliamentary election: “Judgment Day.” It was an opportunity to issue a verdict on the first two years of President Yoon Suk Yeol, a leader who has made strides on the global stage but is deeply unpopular and divisive at home.
在政治横幅上、竞选口号里和人们的日常对话中,韩国人用“审判日”这个词来表达本周国会选举的重大意义。这是对尹锡悦总统执政前两年表现给出裁决的机会,这位领导人在国际舞台上取得了长足的进步,但在国内却极不受欢迎,引发了分裂。
The results, released on Thursday, were disastrous for Mr. Yoon.
对尹锡悦来说,周四公布的选举结果是灾难性的。
Voters pushed him to the verge of being a lame duck, giving the opposition one of the biggest parliamentary majorities in recent decades. He becomes the first South Korean president in decades to contend with an opposition-controlled Parliament for his entire time in office.
选民让他几乎成为“跛脚鸭”,使反对党成为近几十年来国会最大的多数派之一。他也成为了几十年来首位在整个任期内与反对派控制的国会抗衡的韩国总统。
The outcome — and the increasingly polarized South Korean political climate that Mr. Yoon helped intensify — heralded deepening deadlock in a country that is crucial to U.S. efforts to counter China and North Korea. It reduces the odds of Mr. Yoon achieving anything that requires bipartisan support. And it raises the prospect of him leaving office in 2027 with little to show other than redirecting his country’s foreign policy toward expanding military ties with Washington and Tokyo.
这一结果——以及尹锡悦帮助加剧的韩国日益两极分化的政治气候——预示着这个国家的僵局将进一步加剧,而这个国家对美国抗衡中国和朝鲜的努力至关重要。此次选举结果降低了尹锡悦实现任何需要两党支持的目标的可能性,也增加了另一种可能性:他在2027年卸任时,除了将国家外交政策转向扩大与华盛顿和东京的军事关系外,几乎不会取得任何建树。
Mr. Yoon has been proud of his conservative foreign policy. But to many voters, this election was about domestic woes, such as inflation and signs of democratic backsliding. The opposition successfully framed the vote as a referendum on him.
尹锡悦一直对自己的保守外交政策引以为傲。但对许多选民来说,这次选举是关于国内问题的,例如通货膨胀和民主倒退的迹象。反对派成功地将这次投票塑造为对他的公投。
For months, political analysts, local media and even critics within his own party had been warning Mr. Yoon about his “disconnect” from everyday people and his “hubris” in dealing with the opposition, a national disaster, a prolonged strike by doctors and allegations of corruption involving his wife, Kim Keon Hee.
几个月来,政治分析人士、当地媒体,甚至党内的批评者一直对尹锡悦发出警告,称他与普通民众“脱节”,在对待反对派、一场全国性灾难、医生旷日持久的罢工以及他在处理涉及妻子金建希腐败指控问题上显得“傲慢”。
“His leadership has been a runaway train,” said Ahn Byong-jin, a political scientist at Kyung Hee University in Seoul, referring to Mr. Yoon’s obstinacy in pushing unpopular decisions.
“他的领导力就像一列失控的火车,”首尔庆熙大学政治学者安秉镇(音)说,他指的是尹锡悦顽固地推行不受欢迎的决定。
During his two years in office, Mr. Yoon’s business-friendly domestic agenda has remained paralyzed by his toxic relationship with the opposition-controlled National Assembly, South Korea’s unicameral legislature. He was more successful overseas, basking in the spotlight in Washington and European capitals for his foreign policy and his country’s growing importance in the war in Ukraine.
在任两年来,由于与反对派控制的国会关系不佳,尹锡悦的商业友好型国内议程陷入瘫痪。韩国国会为一院制立法机构。他在海外较为成功,因其外交政策和在乌克兰战争中日益重要的地位而受到华盛顿和欧洲各国政府的关注。
For the United States, South Korea under Mr. Yoon is a key and willing partner in building a coalition against China — an effort highlighted by President Biden’s meetings this week with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines.
对于美国来说,尹锡悦领导下的韩国是建立抗衡中国联盟的关键且愿意合作的伙伴——拜登总统本周与日本和菲律宾领导人的会晤凸显了这一努力。
And while foreign policy largely rests in the hand of the president, Mr. Yoon’s weakened domestic stature could hamper his diplomatic initiatives, some of which have been highly controversial at home.
尽管外交政策主要由总统定夺,但尹锡悦被削弱的国内地位可能对他的外交举措构成阻碍,其中一些举措在国内引起了很大争议。
Lee Jae-myung, whose progressive Democratic Party carried the election, has vehemently criticized Mr. Yoon for expanding military cooperation with Japan, a former colonial master of Korea, and for alienating China, South Korea’s biggest trading partner, on Washington’s behalf. Mr. Lee also prefers dialogue with North Korea, unlike the approach by Mr. Yoon and by Washington of prioritizing sanctions and military deterrence.
李在明所在的进步派共同民主党赢得了选举,对于尹锡悦扩大与韩国前殖民国日本进行军事合作,并代表华盛顿疏远韩国最大贸易伙伴中国的行为,他提出了强烈批评。李在明还更倾向于与朝鲜对话,这与尹锡悦和华盛顿优先考虑制裁和军事威慑的做法不同。
When Mr. Yoon won the presidency in 2022, he inherited the Assembly elected two years earlier. He often blamed the opposition-controlled Parliament for blocking or watering down his domestic agenda, such as labor and health care policies. But for this week’s election debacle and his party’s continued lack of parliamentary majority for the rest of his term, Mr. Yoon had few to blame, except for himself.
尹锡悦于2022年赢得总统大选时,继承了两年前选出的国会。他经常指责反对派控制的国会阻碍或减弱他的国内议程效果,例如劳工和医疗保健政策。但对于本周的选举惨败以及他的政党在其剩余任期内仍然没有获得国会多数席位,尹锡悦只能怪自己了。
Still, the election result could have been even worse for him.
尽管如此,选举结果对他来说本来可能会更糟。
The opposition Democratic Party and its coalition partners won nearly 190 seats, falling short of a supermajority of 200 seats, which would have allowed lawmakers to override a presidential veto or pursue an impeachment of the president. Mr. Yoon’s People Power Party and its affiliates won 108 seats, down from the 114 they control in the outgoing Parliament.
反对党共同民主党及其联盟赢得了近190个席位,未达到200个绝对多数席位,而这本来可以让议员推翻总统的否决或弹劾总统。尹锡悦领导的国民力量党及其卫星党赢得了108个席位,低于他们在即将卸任的国会中控制的114个席位。
“This wise decision from the people left President Yoon and the opposition with no option but to start dialogue,” said Sung Deuk Hahm, a political scientist at Kyonggi University. “If they don’t wake up, things can get really ugly.”
“人民的这一明智决定让尹锡悦总统和反对派别无选择,只能开始对话,”京畿大学政治学家咸成德(音)表示,“如果他们不醒悟,局面就会变得很难看。”
Mr. Yoon needs help from the opposition in addressing runaway housing prices, a rapidly aging population and a long-delayed overhaul of the national pension system. Mr. Lee, who was defeated by Mr. Yoon two years ago and hopes to run for president again, also needs to build his leadership credentials.
尹锡悦需要反对党的帮助来解决房价失控、迅速老龄化的人口以及拖延已久的国家养老金制度改革等问题。两年前被尹锡悦击败并希望再次竞选总统的李在明也需要建立自己的领导资历。
Stunned by the election result, Mr. Yoon showed signs of doing something observers had once said he would never do: admitting that he was at fault.
尹锡悦对选举结果大为震惊,他表现出了观察人士曾经说过他永远不会做的事情的迹象:承认自己有错。
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and many of Mr. Yoon’s top aides tendered their resignations on Thursday to open the way for the president to reorganize his government. The expected shake-up did not include foreign policy aides, a sign that Mr. Yoon intended to maintain his diplomatic initiatives.
韩国总理韩德洙和尹锡悦的许多高级助手于周四请辞,为尹锡悦重组政府开辟了道路。预计的人事变动不包括外交政策助手,这表明尹锡悦打算维持其外交举措。
Presidential aides also told reporters that Mr. Yoon would try to build a cooperative relationship with members of the opposition, whom his party had called “criminals” during the campaign. Mr. Yoon did not speak publicly, but his chief of staff, Lee Kwan-sup, relayed a message from the president.
总统助手还告诉记者,尹锡悦将努力与反对派成员建立合作关系,他的政党在竞选期间称这些反对派成员为“罪犯”。尹锡悦没有作公开表示,但总统秘书室室长李宽燮转达了总统的信息。
“I will humbly accept the will of the people as reflected in the election result and will overhaul the way the government is run and do my best to stabilize the economy and the people’s livelihood,” Mr. Yoon was quoted as saying.
据传达的信息,尹锡悦表示,“我将虚心接受选举结果所反映的人民意愿,彻底改革政府的运作方式,尽我最大的努力稳定经济和民生。”
Choe Sang-Hun是时报驻首尔的首席记者,报道韩国和朝鲜新闻。点击查看更多关于他的信息。
翻译:安妮