Widespread concerns about President Biden’s age pose a deepening threat to his re-election bid, with a majority of voters who supported him in 2020 now saying he is too old to lead the country effectively, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College.
《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院的一项新调查显示，对拜登总统年龄的普遍担忧给他的连任竞选构成了日益严重的威胁，大多数在2020年支持他的选民现在都认为他年龄太大了，无法有效领导这个国家。

The survey pointed to a fundamental shift in how voters who backed Mr. Biden four years ago have come to see him. A striking 61 percent said they thought he was “just too old” to be an effective president.
调查显示，四年前支持拜登的选民现在看待他的方式发生了根本性转变。61%的人认为他“太老了”，无法胜任总统职务。

A sizable share was even more worried: Nineteen percent of those who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, and 13 percent of those who said they would back him in November, said the 81-year-old president’s age was such a problem that he was no longer capable of handling the job.
还有相当一部分人更为担忧：在2020年投票给拜登的人中有19%的人、在11月表示将支持他的人中有13%的人声称，这位81岁总统的年龄是个大问题，他已不再有能力胜任这份工作。

The misgivings about Mr. Biden’s age cut across generations, gender, race and education, underscoring the president’s failure to dispel both concerns within his own party and Republican attacks painting him as senile. Seventy-three percent of all registered voters said he was too old to be effective, and 45 percent expressed a belief that he could not do the job.
对拜登年龄的担忧跨越了代际、性别、种族和教育程度，突显出总统未能消除本党内部的担忧，以及共和党说他年老体衰的攻击。在所有登记选民中，73%的人认为他太老了，无法有效发挥作用，45%的人认为他无法胜任这项工作。

This unease, which has long surfaced in polls and in quiet conversations with Democratic officials, appears to be growing as Mr. Biden moves toward formally capturing his party’s nomination. The poll was conducted more than two weeks after scrutiny of his age intensified in early February, when a special counsel described him in a report as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” and “diminished faculties in advancing age.”
长期以来，这种不安情绪一直在民意调查和与民主党官员的私下谈话中浮现，随着拜登朝正式获得党内提名迈进，这种不安情绪似乎有增无减。2月初，拜登的年龄受到更多关注，当时一名特别顾问在报告中称他为“善意的老人，记忆力差”，以及“随着年龄增大，能力下降，”这次民意调查是在该报告发布两周多后进行的。

Previous polling suggests that voters’ reservations about Mr. Biden’s age have grown over time. In six top battleground states surveyed in October, 55 percent of those who voted for him in 2020 said they believed he was too old to be an effective president, a sharp increase from the 16 percent of Democrats who shared that concern in a slightly different set of swing states in 2020.
此前的民调显示，随着时间推移，选民对拜登的年龄问题持保留态度的人越来越多。在10月接受调查的六个主要战场州中，55%在2020年投票给他的人表示，他们认为他太老了，无法胜任总统职务，该比例较2020年大幅上升——在当时调查的略有不同的几个摇摆州中，有同样的担忧的民主党人仅为16%。

Voters have not expressed the same anxieties about Donald J. Trump, who at 77 is just four years Mr. Biden’s junior. Their likely rematch would make them the oldest presidential nominees in history.
选民们对77岁的特朗普没有表现出同样的焦虑，他只比拜登小四岁。两人很可能再次对决，这将使他们成为历史上最年长的总统候选人。

If re-elected, Mr. Biden would beat his own record as the oldest sitting president, while Mr. Trump would be the second-oldest if he won. Mr. Trump would be 82 at the end of the term, and Mr. Biden would be 86.
如果再次当选，拜登将打破自己的纪录，成为最年长的在任总统，而特朗普如果获胜，将成为第二年长的在任总统。任期结束时，特朗普将是82岁，拜登将是86岁。

In the most recent Times survey, 19 percent of all voters said Mr. Trump’s age was such a problem that he was not capable of handling the presidency. And in a sign of Republicans’ far greater confidence in their likely nominee, less than 1 percent of voters who backed Mr. Trump in 2020 said his age made him incapable.
在《纽约时报》最近的调查中，19%的选民表示，特朗普的年龄是个问题，令他无法胜任总统职位。在2020年大选中支持特朗普的选民中，只有不到1%的人认为他的年龄让他无法胜任，这表明共和党人对他们可能的提名人更有信心。

Mr. Biden and his allies have rejected anxieties about his age and mental acuity as unfair and inaccurate. His campaign says its coalition will again rally around the president once it fully recognizes that Mr. Trump could win back the White House. It also argues that Mr. Biden faced age concerns in 2020 and still won.
拜登及其盟友拒绝接受对他的年龄和思维敏锐程度的担忧，认为这是不公平、不准确的。他的竞选团队表示，一旦充分认识到特朗普可能赢回白宫，支持他们的联盟将再次团结在总统周围。该团队还认为，拜登在2020年也曾面临年龄问题，但仍然获胜。

Yet Mr. Biden is now four years older, and it may be impossible to completely reassure voters about his age given the inexorable march of time. The poll indicates that the worries about him are not only pernicious but also now intertwined with how many voters view him.
然而，拜登现在又老了四岁，鉴于时间的无情推移，可能难以让选民对他的年龄彻底放心。民意调查显示，对他的担忧不仅对他有害，而且现在还与很多选民对他的整体看法交织在一起。

Calvin Nurjadin, a Democrat in Cedar Park, Texas, who plans to support Mr. Biden in November, said he was unconvinced by politicians in his party who have publicly played up their direct observations of Mr. Biden’s mental sharpness.
得克萨斯州锡达帕克的民主党人卡尔文·努尔贾丁计划在11月的大选中支持拜登。他说，他不相信党内一些政界人士公开强调的他们对拜登思维敏捷程度的直接观察。

“You’ve just kind of seen the clips of, you know, he’s having memories onstage and, you know, during debate and discussion where he kind of freezes up a lot,” said Mr. Nurjadin, who does data entry work. “Him being sharp and fit is not very convincing.”
“你看到了一些片段，他在台上需要回忆，在辩论和讨论中，他经常有点僵住，”从事数据录入工作的努尔贾丁说。“（在这些片段中）他的敏锐和健康并不是很有说服力。”

Even though the country is bitterly divided and Republican voters have overwhelmingly negative views of Mr. Biden’s age, Democrats do not appear to be more worried about the effects of time on Mr. Trump than on Mr. Biden. Similar shares of Democrats said each man was too old to be effective.
尽管国家存在严重分歧，共和党选民对拜登的年龄有着压倒性的负面看法，但是关于时间的影响，民主党人对拜登和特朗普的担心似乎差不多。认为两人都太老，无法发挥作用的民主党人比例相同。

The poll tried to understand in greater depth how voters thought about Mr. Biden’s and Mr. Trump’s abilities. The survey first asked if each man was too old to be effective. Voters who said yes were asked a follow-up question about whether that age was such a problem that Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump was not capable of handling the job, a stronger measure that prompted voters to consider the candidate’s basic fitness for office.
该调查试图更深入地了解选民对拜登和特朗普能力的看法。这项调查首先询问，是否两个人都太老了，无法有效发挥作用。回答“是”的选民还会被问一个后续问题，即年龄问题是否严重到让拜登或特朗普无法胜任这份工作，这是一个更有力的衡量标准，促使选民考虑候选人是否从基本上适合担任总统。

Shermaine Elmore, 44, a small-business owner in Baltimore, voted for Mr. Biden four years ago, backing the Democratic candidate as he had in previous elections.
44岁的谢尔曼·埃尔莫尔是巴尔的摩的一名小企业主，四年前投票支持拜登，他在之前的选举中也一样支持民主党的候选人。

But he said he had made more money under Mr. Trump, blaming inflation and gas prices for his losses during the Biden administration. He planned to vote for Mr. Trump this fall.
但他表示，在特朗普执政期间，他赚的钱更多，并将他在拜登执政期间的亏损归咎于通货膨胀和汽油价格。他计划今年秋天投票给特朗普。

Of Mr. Biden, he said: “I don’t think he’s in the best health to make a decision if the country needs the president to make a decision.”
至于拜登，他说：“如果这个国家需要总统做决定，我认为他的健康状况并不适合。”

Samuel Friday, 28, a database administrator and a Democrat in Goose Creek, S.C., said he planned to vote for Mr. Biden but had some apprehension about whether the president would survive a second term.
南卡罗来纳州鹅溪的民主党人、28岁的数据库管理员塞缪尔·弗莱德说，他计划投票给拜登，但对这位总统能否挺过第二个任期有些担心。

“In terms of his health, I think people have come out and said that he’s healthy as can be, which is always positive,” he said. “But when you get to a certain age, there is the higher risk that the president could die in office. And I’m not sure that Kamala Harris would be the choice that I would want in the presidency.”
“就他的健康而言，我认为已经有人站出来说他很健康，这终归是好事，”他说。“但是当你到了一定年龄，总统在任内去世的风险就会增加。我不确定卡玛拉·哈里斯会是我希望的总统人选。”

Indeed, the vice president is not seen any more positively than Mr. Biden. Only 36 percent of all voters said they had a favorable view of Ms. Harris.
事实上，人们对副总统的看法并不比对拜登的看法更积极。只有36%的选民表示对哈里斯有好感。

About two-thirds of those who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 expressed a positive view of Ms. Harris, nearly the same as for the president. And in a head-to-head contest with Mr. Trump, Ms. Harris did not fare any better than Mr. Biden, losing by six percentage points.
在2020年投票给拜登的人中，约有三分之二的人对哈里斯持正面看法，这与对现任总统的看法几乎相同。在与特朗普的直接对比中，哈里斯的表现并不比拜登好，她比特朗普落后了六个百分点。

Camille Baker对本文有报道贡献。

《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院于2024年2月25日至28日通过手机和固定电话对全国980名登记选民进行了民意调查。在登记选民中对总统选票问题的抽样误差范围为正负3.5%。表格和统计方法详见于此。

Lisa Lerer是时报美国政治记者，常驻纽约。她报道美国政治已有20多年。

Ruth Igielnik是时报投票新闻编辑，对民意调查进行报道和分析。她此前是皮尤研究中心的资深研究员。

翻译：晋其角