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Economic bubbles: Causes and conditions 1 Economic bubbles occur when for any number of reasons excessive investment in commodities (such as oil) securities (such as stocks and bonds) real estate or collectibles drives up prices well beyond the item's intrinsic value. The inevitable result of this boom in price is a crash or bust. The price falls sharply once it becomes clear that it has grown far beyond the purchasing power of potential customers. 2 Speculators risk money in such investments because they hope that the price of an asset they purchased will quickly increase. Since most speculators are nervous about where they invest their money bubbles are by no means the norm. After all every investment entails the risk that it is overpriced. They also know that rising prices will encourage either greater production of a commodity or greater willingness of current owners to sell. Either of these conditions can serve as a "negative feedback" mechanism that adjusts prices downward. As an analogy think of negative economic feedback like your eyes. As the light gets brighter your pupils get smaller and let in less light. But what if instead your eyes worked as a "positive feedback" mechanism? In sunlight your pupils would open wide and damage your eyes. 3 Economic bubbles occur when prices trending sharply upward spur positive rather than negative feedback. For whatever reason (fear of shortages greed an excessively optimistic attitude toward the future or flaws in the analysis of an asset's underlying value) buyers believe that the value of the asset will continue to rise. If the price rises overly enthusiastic speculators buy more or those who missed out on the lower price flock to buy before the price rises any higher. The foremost explanation is the "greater fool theory": Buyers justify their purchases by assuring themselves they will find "a greater fool" who will pay even more. Buyer enthusiasm infects other buyers amplifying the effect even further. Under the right conditions prices can reach dizzying heights before falling. One famous example is the tulip-buying bubble which happened in Amsterdam in the 1630s when a single tulip bulb could cost a year's salary. 4 Most bubbles are easily assimilated or averted by an elastic market. Provided the bubble is small enough the losers earn wisdom in retrospect and the winners earn a lot of money. But the effects of a bubble might become cumulative if many owners of an overpriced asset feel rich and spend foolishly especially in a period of deregulation. Imagine this: You buy a house for $200000 for which you borrowed $160000 beforehand. You have $40000 in equity in the house. Over the next five years the market appraisal rises to $500000. Now you have $340000 in equity ($500000–$160000) so you borrow another $240000 from a bank using this equity to secure the loan. You still have $100000 in equity in your home and you have $240000 to spend. You suddenly feel less need to be economical with your purchases and allocate more money for things like a vacation home a new car etc. 5 But equity is not revenue. The market holds long enough for you to spend the money. Then it crashes and the value of your home falls to $325000. Now you have negative equity and owe the bank almost $400000. So you default on your loan and give your house car and vacation home to the bank. If this situation is widespread it can culminate in the failure of those banks and a severe crackdown on the lending needed to grow the economy. 6 There are also stock market bubbles. In a normal market investors buy stock in a company because they anticipate that future profits will become dividends and they believe the value of the company's assets will increase. Sometimes though a "herd mentality" sets in and too many brokers rush to buy driving prices like mercury up a thermometer to levels that prove unrealistic. Eventually it becomes clear that further increases are not forthcoming and price deterioration develops followed by a swift drop. When this happens to too many companies in aggregate it is called a stock market crash. 7 A recent stock market bubble was the "dot-com" bubble. The buzz about the economic possibilities of the Internet encouraged investors to fund the creation of many dot-com companies too many it turned out. For several years dozens of entrepreneurs sought to duplicate for themselves the results of those that had come before. Many investors envisaged wealth for any business with a website that could advertise on TV or billboards even if their actual services were ambiguous. Instead on March 102000 the dot-com boom reached its peak when the stock index hit 5132.52. Over the next two and a half years the index dropped to as low as 1108. Very few companies bucked the trend. Most had blundered into awful financial difficulties selling off their assets to healthier companies. 8 Bubbles are not limited to the arena of real estate or "get rich" stock offerings. In 1996 a series of stuffed animal toys called Ty Beanie BabiesTM became such a fad that speculators bought up large quantities assuming that their value as collectibles would continue to rise. Did anyone make money on that fad? Maybe but why not see for yourself? Check out the price of Beanie Babies in an online auction site and decide if any of these sellers have struck it rich. 经济泡沫：成因与条件 不管因为何种原因，一旦人们对于商品（如石油）、证券（如股票、债券）、房地产或收藏品过度投资从而推高其价格，使其远远超过商品的内在价值，经济泡沫就会产生。而这种价格暴涨不可避免的结果就是经济的崩溃或破灭。一旦价格大大超过潜在消费者购买力的趋势明了，价格就会急剧下跌。 投机者们因为希望购买的资产价格能够急剧上涨才进行这样的风险投资。由于大多数的投机者对资金的投向都有所顾虑，因此泡沫的产生绝非常态。毕竟每笔投资都包含估价过高的风险。他们也知道价格上涨要么会推动商品产量的进一步扩大，要么促使现有的持有者更愿意卖出。不管哪种情况都会有助于形成促使价格下行的“负面反馈”机制。打个比方，把负面经济反馈比作人的眼睛，光线越强，瞳孔越小，摄入的光亮就会越少。但要是人的眼睛发挥的是“正面反馈”机制作用，结果会怎样呢？在太阳光下，瞳孔就会张大，从而对眼睛造成伤害。 如果价格急剧上行引起的是正面而非负面反馈，就会产生经济泡沫。因为担心供应不足，因为贪心，或是对其未来过分乐观，或是因为对资产的内在价值的分析存在疏漏——不管何种原因，购买者相信其价值会持续上行。如果价格上涨，狂热的投机者就会买入更多，或者那些错过低价买入的人就会在价格进一步攀升之前蜂拥入市。对此现象的解释莫过于“博傻理论”：买入方深信自己能找到下一个甘愿出更高价格的冤大头，从而认为自己的买卖是合理的。抢购热会相互感染，从而会进一步放大此种效应。在合适的条件下，价格会一路飙升至令人目眩的高位，然后下跌。人尽皆知的例子就是17世纪30年代发生在阿姆斯特丹的郁金香抢购泡沫，当时，一株郁金香球茎的价格相当于一年的工资。 大多数的泡沫容易被弹性市场加以消化或转移。只要这种泡沫不是很大，输家花钱买聪明，赢家则赚得盆满钵满。但如果资产虚高，持有人恃富而挥霍无度，这种泡沫效应就会不断积累，尤其在市场缺乏监管之时。试想一下：你以200,000美元购买一套房子，事先贷款160,000美元，则房产净值为40,000美元。五年过后，市场估价上升到500,000美元。现在你获得的房产净值就是340,000美元（即$500,000-$160,000），于是你以此作担保，再贷款240,000美元。你依然持有100,000美元的房产净值，还有240,000美元可供花销。顿时，你会觉得没有必要节省开支，还能抽出更多钱来购置度假屋及新车等等。 但房产净值并不是收益。市场长期保持稳定，让你有足够的时间花钱。后来，市场崩溃，你的房屋价值跌至325,000美元。你现在持有的房产净值为负，倒欠银行将近400,000美元。为此，你就停止还款，将房子、车子和度假屋等交给银行。此种情形一旦蔓延，终会让银行难以为继，并最终沉重打击发展经济所需的贷款业务。 股票市场也有泡沫。在正常市场上，投资者购买一个公司的股票是因为他们预期公司未来的利润会成为红利，相信公司的资产能增值。不过，有时由于“羊群效应”，众多经纪人蜂拥热购，股价就像温度计里的水银被一路推至虚高。最终，形势变得明了：股价不再上涨，演变为股价下挫，暴跌也随之而来。当这种情况集中爆发于众多的公司时，就被称为股市崩盘。 最近一次股市泡沫就是互联网泡沫。对互联网经济前景的看好促使投资者们出资创建众多网络公司——最终证明是太多了。几年内，众多的创业者寻求复制以前网络公司的成功经验。许多投资者设想在电视和广告牌上给网站打广告来开展任意业务以牟取财富，尽管他们对自身实际业务都还模糊不清。然而，在2000年3月10日股票指数到达5,132.52的最高点时，网络公司的繁荣到达顶峰。在紧接着的两年半时间里，指数持续跌落，低至1,108点。很少有公司能在颓势中挺住，大多数公司都陷入糟糕的财务困境，只好将其资产廉价脱手给更健康的公司。 泡沫并不局限于房地产领域或“赚钱”的股票发行。在1996年，名为豆豆娃（Ty Beanie BabiesTM）系列的布绒玩具迅速走红，有投机者大量买进，认为作为藏品，其价值会持续攀升。有人靠此种时尚赚钱了吗？也许吧！但何不亲自看看呢？到在线拍卖网站核实其价格就能断定是否有卖家借此发财。 |
